The Gambia Is Likely To Experience Minimal, Static Roles For Non-State Actors Over The Next Five Years

Executive Summary:

Although The Gambia has a democratically elected government, due to the relative insecurity and heavy handed tactics of the ruling regime the role of non-state actors (NSA) is likely to be severely restricted and remain rather static over the next five years. This is consistent with its score of 1 on the Government-Sanctioned side of the role potential spectrum. Historic Senegalese intervention (1981) and lack of intervention (1994) in coup attempts has left the Alliance for Patriotic Re-Orientation and Construction (APRC), the ruling regime of The Gambia, unsure of what to expect from its more powerful neighbor. In the face of if this inability to rely on external support the APRC uses heavy handed tactics to subdue dissidents. Political opposition (particularly the United Democratic Party -UDP) and critical media, such as The Daily Observer, The Independent, and Citizen FM, regularly face persistent persecution in the form of physical intimidation, violence, censure, arrest, deportation,etc at the hands of government agents. These characteristics are consistent with data analysis as The Gambia's variable scores fall within no more than one quintile away from scores consistent with totalitarian regimes. There are limited roles for both lawful and unlawful actors in The Gambia. Government Sanctioned role potentials are likely to demonstrate a slight advantage over Extra-Government role potentials; however, neither criminal organizations (i.e. drug, arms, diamond smugglers,etc) nor political interest groups are unlikely to wield much influence in the socio-political processes of The Gambia.

Analytic Confidence: 8
Source Reliability: 9

Overall Score	Democracy Var.	Doing Bus. Var.	Corruption Var.
Failed States Var.	Geo Dis- NGOs	Geo Dis- Bus.	Geo Dis- Ter Grps.